Leader's Compass 39 - Only the Adaptable Survive

The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend how several retailers are closing all of their brick and mortar stores. Online is the name of the game and many long term retailers are making the switch. Several other companies are closing a significant number of stores.

As shopping habits have changed over time many retailers are finding they have not adapted quickly enough to the change and are losing market share in a scramble to retain and gain customers. The pain points of this new reality are felt in lost profits, restructuring in corporate structures and several lost jobs.

This last week "restructuring" hit home for us as the company my wife works for failed to plan well and adapt to it's own market pressures. The company decided to make sweeping cuts and closed down her office laying off some 150 or so people.

Although we say that hindsight is 20/20 and we can't know the future I believe there is a way to look at predictors of success and failure and identify both positive and negative trends before they overwhelm.

Forecasting isn't just an essential skill for the meteorologist. Businessmen and businesswomen need to be able to forecast as well. One important thing I've learned over the years is that your forecast, just like the meteorologist's forecast, doesn't need to be 100% accurate. Is it going to rain? Most likely. Should I take an umbrella? Yes, to be safe. Do I care if it rains at 1PM or 4PM if I have my raincoat or umbrella? I shouldn't. And, if it doesn't rain...at least I was slightly over-prepared.

Darwin's theory of evolution was not predicated on the concept of the survival of the fittest. It was predicated on the survival of the most adaptable. One important skill set to adaptation is the ability to forecast.

Forecasting in business and our personal lives is about looking at what is, what has been and predicting, based on the current culture and conditions what the future could bring. Although you don't need to be a rocket scientist, a seer or some kind of mind reader to forecast well you do need to know, observe and develop a few things.

1. Past behavior can predict future behavior. We are habitual creatures. What we have done in the past can be a predictor of what the future holds. This is a tricky concept though. The past certainly does not equal the future, but it certainly does tell us a good idea of what is to come. Unless we act with careful and thoughtful intention on a regular basis the current status quo of winning or losing will continue.
2. Culture trumps strategy - always. In the first few months of my wife working for this organization she recently left I expressed my concerns to her over their long-term prospects. Although they promoted the technology they sold and the size of the company as two of their strengths I could see very early on that they did not have a culture set up for strong long-term growth. The technology was not user friendly compared to competitors. The service model was focused solely on acquisition of new clients with no true strategy for the service of clients to prevent attrition. Your company culture, your personal culture, the habits that are ingrained in each individual need to be rooted in long-term growth, otherwise failure is inevitable.
3. Confront the brutal facts. Ever wake up one day and "realize" you are 50 pounds overweight? We hear this all the time in my business. "I didn't realize how much I had gained until I saw a picture of myself" is a common tome in my line of work. The ability to confront the facts and address issues head on is crucial to accurate forecasting. You have a habit of eating that bowl of ice cream before bed because you need something sweet...you can forecast that your health will decline. Your team is self-centered and not client focused? You can forecast a decrease in business will come shortly. 
4. Life is about trends. You can only coast when you are going downhill. Getting up the hill requires significant effort. Do you, your company, your team have a habit and trend of hard work and dedicated effort? If so, you can forecast better. I've found over the years that those who are best at forecasting life and business tend to be not only the most observant, but also the hardest working. They move with the speed of life and don't just sit on the couch playing armchair quarterback. A few years ago my wife and I went to the Olympics and watched the bobsled race. What we learned very quickly is that in order to watch a bobsled race in person you must turn your head as soon as you hear the sound of the sled, otherwise you miss the sled entirely. Life is the same. When you hear of a trend you must already be moving or you will miss it.
5. Finally, you have to take personal accountability. No excuses. It's me. I am accountable. That's it. If you look to blame anyone else you will not be able to forecast effectively. The blame game takes you off your game and puts you in a world where you don't see things as they are, but as you need them to be. The ability to forecast well requires personal accountability to be a hallmark of character. Not sure where to start? Read QBQ by John Miller. It's the best, most simple solution.

Those that have the ability to adapt will be those that survive and thrive in life and in business. Your skill sets to adapt and change in life are paramount to your success. As disappointed as we were this last week at the shutdown of my wife's location I can't say I was surprised.

Forecasting and foreseeing is an essential skill and one that I hope you will look into to improve your life and leadership. Forecasting won't prevent all problems, nor will it keep us from making mistakes along the way. Developing the skills necessary to properly forecast can lead us on the path to better, more intentional planning and work as a hedge against failure and major loss. Here's to your development of your forecasting skills! Lead on!